Speculation is rife that U.S/NATO are winning the military war in Ukraine (by arming and commanding Ukraine’s armed forces — it’s a proxy-war on the U.S. side), and also is rife that Russia is winning the military war in Ukraine (using its own forces), but “the fog of war” and propagandistic agendas dominate the military war on both sides (both the U.S.-and-allied side that gets its ‘information’ from Ukraine’s Government) and the Russian side that gets its ‘information’ from Russia’s Government).
It’s a two-front war: the military front, and the economic front. And that “fog of war” pertains ONLY to the military aspect of the war. It does NOT pertain to the economic front.
The ‘fog of war’ is almost 100% uncertainty on the military front, and nobody yet really knows which side is is actually winning this war militarily.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, left, and White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan shake hands during their meeting in Kyiv, Ukraine, Friday, November 4, 2022
THE People’s Assembly demonstration this weekend was a welcome return to the mass politics of the streets and a valuable first challenge to the austerity programme that the Tories are carefully constructing.
We must guard the flame of revolt — the convergence of anti-war sentiment and outright rejection of austerity — that drove the extraordinary 2017 election result and the mass movement associated with it.
We are in a different situation today. The crisis, revealed by the 2008 financial crash, has no long-term resolution and the war in Ukraine is reaching a stalemate.
The US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s meetings with Ukrainian leaders, including President Vladimir Zelensky, in Kiev has created a lot of confusion and misperceptions. One one side, the White House maintains that the trip aimed “to underscore the United States’ steadfast support to Ukraine and its people.” The readout stated that Sullivan also affirmed “the continued provision of economic and humanitarian assistance, as well as ongoing efforts with partners to hold Russia accountable for its aggression.”
However, unnamed US officials gave the spin that Sullivan’s real mission was to “nudge” Zelensky to negotiate with Moscow and urge that “Kyiv must show its willingness to end the war reasonably and peacefully.” Politico later reported that Zelensky indeed heeded Sullivan’s “soft nudging”. The US media also reported that the US officials have been nudging the Ukrainians for sometime.
Three main power centers within the Eurozone (Germany, France and Italy) and Britain are entering a period of deep crisis. Their capacity or level of interest to fight Russia in Ukraine is getting severely limited
The Russian Duma’s ratification of the annexation of four regions of Ukraine (Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, as well as the Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions) and the adoption of the relevant laws thereof creates a new dynamic and will take time to create a new balance of forces on the ground.
Meanwhile, the external environment is also phenomenally transforming. The deepening energy crisis in Europe following the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines becomes a serious contradiction.
Thus, a complex situation presents itself against the backdrop of a massive Russian military build-up around Ukraine in the Kharkov region and in the southern Black Sea region with long convoys of armor reportedly heading toward Crimea from Russia.
This episode of Hybrid Industrial/Commercial War, in the form of a terror attack against energy infrastructure in international waters signals the absolute collapse of international law, drowned by a “our way or the highway”, “rules-based”, order.
The attack on both pipelines consisted of multiple explosive charges detonated in separate branches close to the Danish island of Bornholm, but in international waters.
That was a sophisticated operation, carried out in stealth in the shallow depth of the Danish straits. That would in principle rule out submarines (ships entering the Baltic are limited to a draught of 15 meters). As for prospective “invisible” vessels, these could only loiter around with permission from Copenhagen – as the waters around Borholm are crammed with sensors, reflecting fear of incursion by Russian submarines. (!)
Drunk on their own hubris, the Americans got too smart by half. The sabotage of the pipelines will open the eyes of many around the world about the honor and goodness of the indispensable nation. The US actions make its allies look like the imbeciles or pathetic whores they are.
The G7 governments have a problem. The war in Ukraine against Russia is not won. It looks set to be a long grinding conflict, possibly with no end. And yet the world and particularly Europe depends on Russian energy supplies. The G7 has agreed to stop buying Russian oil, as part of its programme of using economics sanctions as a war weapon. But up to now, energy imports from Russia have not been stopped because it would mean a catastrophe for the EU countries, particularly Germany. And Russia is still selling huge volumes—globally – albeit at a discount from the world price—to India, China and other energy-thirsty economies.
Citing anonymous sources CNN claimed on Thursday, U.S. officials helped prepare the Ukrainian military for its counteroffensive against Russian forces in the south of the country.
In its article, CNN, one of largest US news organizations, alleged that this assistance included joint “war gaming” analytical exercises designed to help the Ukrainians get a clear picture of how much personnel and hardware they would need in different scenarios. U.S. officials reportedly were able to better understand what kind of equipment, munitions or intelligence Washington could offer to Kiev.
According to the CNN report, which cites multiple U.S. and Western officials and also Ukrainian sources, U.S. had suggested that Kiev should keep its counteroffensive focused solely on the Kherson region in the south of the country as opposed to trying to strike on multiple fronts, which had supposedly been the Ukrainians’ initial plan.